This week Microsoft presented two new phones, Kin One and Kin Two, which have an emphasis on social-networking apps such as facebook and twitter.  The Kin One phone, manufactured by Sharp, definitely looks different from other phones out there, with a wider, shorter form factor. I would never consider buying one, but it appears to be targeted at a younger demographic. The phone will be released in the US in the next month, and will probably hit the European market this fall.  

When I heard the news, the first thing I wanted to know was what mobile OS the phones would support. To my surprise, they would support neither Windows Mobile 6.5 nor the upcoming Windows Phone 7, but rather a special version of Windows Mobile. The fact that they will be running a special and secret OS version also implies that there will not be any available apps to download or purchase. It almost seems like the launch is just a joke and a smells a bit of desperation from Microsoft. The new Android phones already support what Microsoft is trying to address, plus much more. Other than the inclusion of the Zune media player and the Zune Marketplace, there appears to be nothing noteworthy about these phones. The only conclusion I can draw is that the price tags will be compelling enough for a younger generation to choose them over Android/iPhone.

Here we go again- another post about mobile OS’s. But how could I resist while Symbian is bleeding and no one (Nokia) seems to be trying to do anything about it? 

Over the last several years, Symbian has been the most widely deployed mobile OS, and until recently, Blackberry and iPhone have been like flyspecks on the wall (and still are in some markets). As I have stated before, this is changing with better usability (iPhone), increased openness (Android) and the proliferation of application development (on Apple Store, Windows Mobile and Android).  It is this last point which makes me wonder if Symbian’s future is even bleaker than indicated in the latest Gartner projections (I also happen to think RIM is in trouble, especially if you read this article, but we can leave that for another post).  

Symbian has been struggling to attract application developers to its Ovi store, even though Nokia seems to understand that application availability will be a driver of mobile device sales and a future source of revenue.  One of the main problems is that developing on Symbian is really complicated. I have heard that it takes 6 times longer to develop an application on Symbian than on iPhone, Android and Windows Mobile. I was personally involved with the Symbian Signed process at GIPS and barely managed to survive. 

It hasn’t always been this way.  A couple of years ago, the Nokia/Symbian online developer community was a lively forum with lots of developer activity and communication. But today it is like entering a funeral compared to the Android forums. No wonder there is much less activity on the Ovi store compared to the Apple Store. 

So why are applications so important? Do most people even download more than 3 applications to their phone?  Does it matter if the Apple Store has 10,000 applications versus 5,000 at Ovi store? Isn’t it more important to have one smart business or personal application versus 100 different kinds of car racing games? 

Ovi might have a good selection of applications that meet people’s basic needs, but I suspect that the interest of developing new applications for Symbian will decrease dramatically with the drop in consumer demand for Symbian phones. I use Symbian, Windows Mobile and iPhone OS devices for work, and by looking what you can do on the new smart phones (such as the new Android) I am becoming  more convinced that the smart applications will play a very important role in the future.

Yesterday AT&T announced it would open its 3G wireless network to Internet voice applications on the iPhone. Does this mean we are finally seeing an end on operators blocking certain 3G data traffic? I sure hope so. 

My belief is that if you pay for an unlimited data subscription, and hundreds of dollars for a smartphone, you should be allowed to use whatever application you want. 

Until now, operators have hypocritically argued that VoIP eats up too much bandwidth, possibly overloading data networks, while at the same time allowing bandwidth intensive web browsing, file downloads and  video streaming. It is obvious that operators’ resistance is more about lost revenue for voice traffic. But I find it amazing that mobile bit-pipe providers (read service providers) think they are special. I am paying them for their service and the traffic I generate, so why can’t I decide what to use it for? Would our ADSL providers dare to do the same? 

The success of the iPhone in the US market has been tremendous, and if users finally have the freedom to use any application they want, it could only mean the phone’s popularity will continue to grow. Specifically, if the iPhone retains special VoIP privileges, it could mean they keep other platforms, like Android at bay. For instance, today I read about a new Gartner report which projected Android’s market share to overtake the iPhone OS in 2012. The report states that,  ”while the Google-backed Android mobile operating system currently runs on less than 2% of all smartphones, Gartner Inc. predicts it will surge to 14% of the global smartphone market in 2012 — ahead of the iPhone, as well as Windows Mobile and BlackBerry smartphones”. The report also claims that the market share of the once-dominant Symbian OS will fall to 39%. 

So now we will wait with baited breath see if AT&T and Apple will allow subscribers to use GIPS enabled mobile applications to operate over 3G, and if other operators and devices will follow suit.

Yesterday, HP launched a new video conferencing tool called SkyRoom that will be available for $149 per client and free on select HP business desktop and mobile workstations. From their marketing videos, it definitely looks like a nice collaboration tool, so I am looking forward to installing it and giving it a try. 

Despite the excitement, I did raise my eyebrows a bit when I read that Jeff Wood, director of worldwide marketing for workstations at HP, stated that “SkyRoom is basically a codec” and that “the secret sauce is a HD codec developed over the years that can take info from host system. It’s very good. It’s been used by NASA on the Mars Rover program.”      

The setup documents and specifications state that H.264 and MPEG2 are used for video and MPEG for audio. Wow, so that is where they found the codecs. I didn’t realize that a widely deployed industry standard could be considered a “secret”, but I guess this proves that the codec can deliver high quality video to a variety of applications. 

Unfortunately, to use SkyRoom, each participant needs to be on the same VPN because the application does not traverse firewalls. In addition, echo cancellation does not work on laptops, making desktop conferencing less desirable. Nevertheless, I cheer HP’s innovation and look forward to the proliferation of high quality video throughout the collaboration market.

I stumbled across an interesting blog on Friday and felt that I had to follow up on my post from last week. Eldar Murtazin wrote a review of the new upcoming Nokia N900, which is based on the Maemo OS using Debian GNU/Linux. This OS was previously used in the not so successful Nokia tablet (if you remember the Nokia N800 that only had WiFi connectivity).  This time it seems that the Maemo has beefed up a lot. 

Quoting Eldar regarding the new flagship phone from Nokia: 

 “A natural question comes up: how come the (Symbian) S60 platform has been put aside? It seems to be almost the ideal platform for mobile devices, as it was simply designed for this purpose. But that’s exactly the weak and strong point about the S60 at the same time. The market will require vertical OS, which can be applied in cell phones, communicators, laptops and MID devices, i.e. various device types with different architectures, performance levels and so on. And suddenly it becomes apparent that S60 is not up to the task – the only way it can be tailored for the company’s current needs is through a total reconstruction.”

It can be that Nokia has realized how much it costs to own their own OS. Given that Symbian is tightly connected to ARM and that their API is rather complex, it will be hard to compete with a lighter weight, more portable and user-friendly OS such as Android.  

So basically it means that you can be OS religious as long as it is open, easily available for application developers (has to be much better than current S60) and most important, is a vertical OS that runs on any device. So that would mean that Maemo or Android is not such a bad choice after all. Will the rest of the market follow?

I have been reading about the rumors that Nokia will possibly start using the Android OS in their phones and their newly announced 3G Windows-based notebook. 

It is interesting see that some mobile device manufactures have an almost religious attachment to an OS. For example, Apple has its iPhone OS, RIM its Blackberry OS and Nokia has Symbian. Other mobile device manufactures are more OS agnostic and are using a variety of operating systems across their lines of phones. Examples of these manufactures are Samsung, HTC, Motorola and SonyEricsson.  

The Nokia rumor indicates they are slowly moving to the OS agnostic side. Even if they only support Android for the 3G Notebook to start with, Nokia could become a rather significant Google partner at the same time that they are also partnering with Microsoft.

If we were to assume that the Android rumor is true, how would that affect the mobile landscape? Since Nokia is the number one mobile manufacture in the word, the partnership could definitely have a dramatic effect on the market. With their brand name, power and knowledge, Nokia could definitely take over the role as the main manufacture of Android phones. It could also help the company gain traction in markets that they have had trouble penetrating in the past, such as the US and Asia. Perhaps we are seeing some desperation from the saunas in Finland due to the iPhone’s popularity in US (and now in Europe). Do they think that Symbian has become too big, making it is hard to keep pace with the competition? 

At the same time, such a decision could hurt the Symbian market and affect Nokia’s overall business. Who would buy a phone with an OS that the major owner appears to be abandoning? Nokia could be putting its brand name at stake to reach new markets that are drooling for a new OS such as Android.

So, do I think the rumor is true? No. I would be very surprised if Nokia made such a drastic move and totally abandoned Symbian. They might offer their new 3G notebook with Android, but probably not their mobile phones. But, as always, I could be proven wrong. If so, we can expect some major waves in the mobile phone market.

Sweden has a reputation for being a very open and tolerant country, but it’s not only U.S. service providers and device manufactures who are trying to block VoIP traffic (see my colleague’s blog on this topic). Last Friday I read an article in a Swedish newspaper about data usage in wireless devices and how it affects service provider revenue. Just like their North American counterparts, Swedish service providers fear becoming simple data pipe providers, which means reduced revenue streams and competition with local ADSL/bit pipe providers. 

Is carrier reaction a surprise? No. Today mobile broadband access in Sweden costs approximately $10 (for download speeds of up to 2 Mbit/s and uploads up to 0.384 Mbit/s) or $30 (downloads up to 10 Mbit/s and uploads up to 4.6 Mbit/s). I can assure you that the speed you get from these “Smart Turbo3G-modems” is amazing, especially in the larger cities. During 2008, the average download per user was approximately 2GByte of data per month. Since data traffic continues to increase, service providers will soon need to invest in extra network capacity. Two years ago, a service provider earned $380 per GByte, but today that revenue is down to $25 for the same amount of transferred data. 

Data traffic in Sweden increased fivefold from 2007 to 2008, and today 877,000 people (1/5 of all active broadband subscriptions) use 3G mobile broadband as their main broadband provider. Over the same time period, data revenue has only increased 76% due to monthly fixed fees. This is all the more interesting because it seems like no one uses MMS anymore (at least no one I know. It is really just an expensive way of sending an image, and is so much cheaper to just send an email). 

To solve the paradox of decreasing revenue and increasing data traffic usage, service providers are trying to block VoIP and other non-revenue generating data traffic. There are several examples of such behavior from large operators such as T-Mobile. In the article mentioned above, the Swedish PTS (Post and Telecom Agency, which is like the Swedish FCC) is seeking the authority to stop any service provider that tries to block VoIP usage. PTS states that service providers should not be allowed to manipulate traffic, and that users should be able to freely access any content without service provider interference. Niclas Lundblad, European Policy Manager at Google agrees, stating, “PTS is doing the right thing. This really fosters innovation in the networks.” Unfortunately, PTS does not currently have the authority to stop service providers until the EU takes a general decision about these regulations this fall. 

So it appears as if service providers are again attempting to obstruct innovation and development instead of finding a viable business model that would allow them to generate more revenue from data traffic.

Open source technology has always been a hot issue in the VoIP world (look no further than my colleagues’ previous blogs about the Symbian Foundation, Android and the usage of Linux for VoIP). A recent report from Frost and Sullivan states that, “all IP telephony vendors agree that open-source telephony solutions have made important inroads in the enterprise space – becoming a strong competitor in the business telephony market”.

I agree that open source solutions are gaining a lot attention in certain fields within the VoIP community. For instance, there are several successful commercial deployments of PBX systems based on Asterisk, typically in the SMB market. Open-source SIP proxies, SIP stacks, and SIP clients are also very popular. On the component level, there are a number of open-source and license-free solutions that provide great value to the VoIP community. Good examples of such components are SRTP and the license free iLBC codec.

Despite this success, the report continues that, “the biggest challenge that the open source market has been facing and gradually overcoming is the issue of negative market perceptions” and that “open source projects are relatively young and thus, struggle with market concerns and perceptions of lack of support, scalability, functionality or reliability.”  So although open source software is free, you might end up spending more money on your own adaptations and support. In addition, companies looking to build a product around open source software may end up with a lower quality solution with less functionality, on fewer platforms than their competition. Companies can be successful by knowing their target market and carefully selecting the components of their solution that are the best candidates for open-source.

I have gathered feedback from customers that use open source code for certain functions, and have listed some of the most important issues that need to be considered when selecting an open source feature or solution:

Number of updates
Frequent updates can mean a feature-rich and less buggy product, but also mean frequent builds of your solution to handle the new updates. In many cases you might have done your own adaptations and improvement inside the code that need to be incorporated into updated releases. This can be very time consuming. You are also dependent on what the community prioritizes. Is the community an ad-hoc community or is it well established with a clear strategy so that you know what you can expect?  Does this strategy give you the possibility to expand into new markets or even stay in your current one?

Level of support
With some communities, it can be difficult to get your issues fixed in a timely manner. As mentioned, this perception is usually seen as a major draw-back for the open-source market. It is important to monitor activity in various communities to see how active and responsive they are.

Competitiveness
For some capabilities that do not require large amounts of R&D to maintain high quality and respond to quickly moving market trends, open source solutions can work well. However, for rapidly evolving technology, such as  voice and video processing, where  high quality is expected, open source communities may have a difficult time keeping pace.

Legal
Another issue for larger providers is the lack of indemnification of open-source software. If you are going to be deploying a solution to potentially millions of users, you want to make sure you have some legal protection against IPR infringement claims.

Negative market perceptions
The perception of open source can be difficult if you are competing with larger suppliers that benefit from their current market position, brand identity, distribution network and current customer base. Adoption of open source has significant implications for relationships with all types of customers and partners, and you must recognize the inherent risks and rewards

So the basic lesson in choosing open source software is, “do your homework”. It is important is to select a solution that has a large, active community that provides a feature-rich system and meets your business requirements.

Over the last few years I have occasionally heard about the prospect of VoIP-based kiosk equipment that could allow shoppers in large retail centers to click, connect, and talk to an expert or sales person. The primary function would be for stores that sell high-end goods that require a sales person to possess a deep level of technical knowledge, thus enabling users to speak with an expert who is well-versed in the details of the products (it could also be good for tech nerds like me who just want to try something new). There are a number of places, such as shopping malls, conventional centers, and tourist information stands, that already utilize these kiosks to offer a wealth of information. Unfortunately, these are missing an element of true human interaction. Today, most Kiosks only offer the ability to click and view information, usually leaving users like me unsatisfied.

With the growth of e-commerce, it has also become more common to purchase high-end goods online. However, there are many times when users would benefit from talking to an expert or sales rep before making the final decision to buy something. Today I tried a virtual store at www.lenovo.com called eLounge that offers such capabilities.

With eLounge, users can walk into a virtual Lenovo store to look at the computers and talk to personnel, or even friends if they are logged in at the same time. It utilizes VoIP and spatial audio based on head-related transfer function (HRTF) to place the participants’ voices relative to their positions in the virtual world. I am really looking forward to seeing more applications like this that utilize VoIP, video and web collaboration to enhance the online (and one day in-person) shopping experience. Now there will be even more opportunities for us nerds to talk about technology and gadgets!

Perhaps one of the biggest issues for many consumers of mobile communication services is the continued separation of voice and data traffic rates.  This will probably not change until we have fully deployed 4G (WiMAX or LTE) networks, though we will most likely see more operators introducing bundled data and voice services. 2008 saw the start of flat-rate billing for data services in Europe, a trend which should continue for 2009.  As a recent Frost and Sullivan Stratecast report claims, “data is the driver for mobile operator expansion”.  The more advanced the networks and devices become, the more data will be consumed. The growing popularity of the iPhone and other powerful smart phones, as well as tablets and netbooks, will only increase data channel usage. The expanded capabilities these devices offer, in combination with flat-rate plans, will increase the usage of more sophisticated services such as mobile VoIP and video over the IP network.

Another concern for frequent mobile data users is remembering to turn off data services when traveling, so as not to get unpleasant roaming charge surprises. Today I read an interesting article in TelecomsEurope about a European parliament bill to cap data roaming fees. Under the bill, wholesale prices of data will be capped at €0.50 per megabyte, instead of the €4 that can sometimes be charged today. I think this is a really good start, but I hope mobile data services will continue to evolve to the point where it ultimately does not matter where you are travelling. One day everyone should have their known flat-rate data plan with the right quality of service wherever they are.