“No matter how far a person can go the horizon is still way beyond you,” said American author Zora Neale Hurston. It’s that quest for the horizon that keeps researchers busy throughout the world. Two pieces of news caught my eyes this week - one came out of Japan on the news that Toyota and the Japanese government research laboratory demonstrated a brain/machine interface (BMI) that has been demonstrated to control a wheelchair using a person’s thoughts.
Japan has a rapidly aging population, which is set to be accompanied by a shortage of healthcare workers to tend to them - developments such as a brain/machine interface could help the aged maintain their self-sufficiency. The system enables a person to make a wheelchair turn left, right, forward or stop simply by thinking the commands. The response time is in milliseconds - 125 milliseconds to be exact.
With a 125 milliseconds delay over a telephone call you would probably notice the delay, although it would still be acceptable by today’s standards. GIPS’ research team continues to work hard to improve the telephone and video delay issue - along with all the other intrinsic unhelpful traits of IP networks such as jitter, echo, packet-loss and background noise. So it’s impressive to see this BMI development out of Japan - it could have far-reaching impact on our future.
The second development was simple yet is a welcome initiative in reducing the amount of unnecessary waste in the EU by introducing universal cell phone chargers - albeit for smartphones.
The EU commission requested the mobile phone industry to come forward with a voluntary commitment to provide a universal mobile phone charger, which should reach the market from 2010 onwards.
According to CNET, there are 400 million mobile phones in Europe, and approximately 185 million mobile phones are sold each year in Europe. It’s expected that over half of all new phones sold in 2010 will fall in the smartphone category. This is great news to read as smartphones are nearly all Wi-Fi enabled and have the ability to allow mobile VoIP - potentially great news for GIPS.
The universal mobile phone charger should lower packaging and shipping costs along with a reduction in carbon footprints for wireless carriers. The only downside for consumers is that the chargers will have to be purchased separately (eventually) - so hang on to your universal charger. Hopefully North America will follow suit too.
The emergence of high definition options finally gives the voice business an opportunity to accelerate innovation. This represents very good news as the pace of innovation separates the prosperous from declining sectors in telecom. Doug Mohney argues the arrival of HD sets in motion a Third Wave in telecom as significant as the emergence of mobility in the 80’s and VoIP in the 90’s.
The proliferation of email and adoption of communication tools available from Facebook, Twitter, or the myriad of applications enabled by mobile phone data plans shrinks demand for voice services. The prospect of HD reversing this decline means a voice industry that can move from harvesting back to growth mode. HD can alter the way end users consume voice as the cell phones did by introducing mobility and VoIP did by making unlimited and international calling affordable.
The failure to improve voice quality limits the ways people can use telephones. The torture technique otherwise known as music-on- hold becomes something entirely different with devices that support HD. HD can save businesses from confusion about whether the deal is $50 million or $15 million. International diplomacy gets transformed as HD makes it easier to understand people speaking in other than their native language. Does the reliance of teens on texting reflect a love of text or the fact poor cell phone voice quality makes holding a conversation by any other means difficult?
An HD call offers a level of intimacy that replicates the in-person experience far better than traditional telephones, but HD requires compatible devices on both ends of the connection. This means adoption will need to proceed incrementally via strong links at first in a manner similar to fax machines. HD devices and software already provide a relatively simple means for people with intensive communication needs to set up “hotlines” between each other. In addition to offering better voice quality, keep in mind HD calls get setup as end to end data calls via the Internet or other data connections, so the usual telephone metering for time and distance do not apply.
Everything in life comes in a range of quality options as a function of need and willingness to pay, except telephone voice quality. President Obama suffers the same mediocre voice quality in conversations with world leaders as a teenager planning a party on Friday night. The arrival of HD is poised to transform the landscape, because the factors limiting the world to a single level of voice quality no longer apply. The transition to HD sets in motion a process of continuous improvement that can continue to drive demand year in and year out. Surf’s up!
Jeff Pulver is the Chairman and Founder of pulver.com. He is the publisher of The Pulver Report and creator of the industry standard Voice on the Net (VON) events. Additionally, Jeff is the founder of FWD, the VON Coalition, PrimeTimeRewind.TV, Vivox and is the co-founder of VoIP provider, Vonage.
Logic would dictate that as networks evolve, bandwidth would become more readily available and concerns about network performance would fade. Apparently this is not the case. According to a survey by network management firm Apparent Networks, IT managers still view latency and bandwidth restrictions as obstacles to Unified Communications adoption. In fact, IT professionals are so concerned about network performance that over one third of those surveyed have delayed a VoIP, video or UC project.
While better infrastructure and more advanced networks are certainly being deployed, it appears as if the allure of hosted services is causing many companies to rely on unmanaged networks for critical communications needs. The distributed nature and cost effectiveness of this approach makes it an attractive one, especially as workers and offices become more geographically distributed, and telecommuting becomes more popular. The approach is not without its drawbacks, however, as unmanaged networks tend to have greater packet loss and delay, as well as bandwidth restrictions. According to Jim Melvin, Network’s President and CMO, “If you think about it, the unique requirement of voice and live video is not just bandwidth but also latency. With video, latency can be buffered, but with VoIP only so much latency can be tolerated.”
More Lanes Might Not Help
Networks are of course going to continue to improve, offering more bandwidth in the short term and opening up a number of communications options that were not possible before. But this only means that bandwidth intensive applications like video conferencing will become more popular, again pushing networks to their limits. Think of any highway expansion project you have ever experienced. Additional lanes probably eased traffic congestion for a while, but in the end, expansion only encouraged more people to move to the area and drive more frequently, resulting in traffic reaching its previously congested equilibrium.
One way to break free of this vicious cycle is to deal with the effects of network degradation at the endpoint. By realizing that bandwidth restrictions and latency are facts of IP communication (at least for the foreseeable future), application developers can design products that offer high-quality voice and video regardless of network conditions. Now if only there were a company out there that developed software that overcame these obstacles.
Google Voice has been much discussed with its impending widespread public release. I gave it a whirl over the weekend, and it seems quite nifty. To tie in loosely with my last post about novel methods of reducing mobile phone costs, it seems you can use Google Voice and Gizmo to make free PSTN-terminated calls.
Gizmo is a free VoIP client, which can be installed on a variety of PC and mobile platforms and provides you with a SIP number. Google Voice can be directed to forward and even connect calls to this number. Since domestic calls made through Google Voice are free, we seemingly have a neat system of free calling here.
Some instructions can be found on a Google forum, though some users in the thread report problems connecting the calls to Gizmo. Very interestingly, a blogger describes using this method to make free calls on his Android phone over the 3G/EDGE network.
Perhaps free-as-in-speech VoIP nirvana is not as far off as I had feared…
How do you get President Obama, Michael Jackson and Iranian elections to fit on one page? It may sound like the start of a joke but in fact it’s simple: real-time communication.
As witnessed by the last few weeks Twitter, facebook and instant messenger applications like AIM have been especially active on the latter two topics - not just in the US and Iran but around the globe. While Mr. Jackson nearly brought twitter to a crashing halt yesterday, internet searches did come pretty close to slowing down the worldwide web.
As a society, communication has progressed in recent history from the letter, telegram, telephone, instant messaging and now video calls. What’s profoundly interesting is that the use of real-time communication software is becoming less and less the domain of technology-nerds and is rapidly migrating to general users. This is also evident in the workplace as unified communications grows. The younger generation entering the workplace is also comfortable using their real-time skills in a business environment as well as at home. It’s not just personal computers that house real-time communication platforms; it’s also prevalent on mobile phones.
This shift may seem obvious within the industry but it’s events like the death of a world-renowned musician, the true will of the Iranian people or the results of the US voting masses that highlight this change for me. The real-time communication environment will dramatically shift the way society works and operates. From making a VoIP call from a computer, to sending an instant message to a friend 12,000 miles away or waving hello on a video chat. We’re no longer going to be tethered to the dumb pipe of the PSTN as the IP network is allowing a whole range of software possibilities.
Moving on, I’m excited to read that Google Voice will be launched soon. While some of my colleagues are already using it (they were previously Grand Central customers) I’m awaiting my email invitation. However, I doubt it will solve my pet peeve that many people don’t answer their office telephone when it rings.
Early this month PCCW in HK launched their Media Phone service called “Eye2″
This is a wireless Portable Media Player with content from PCCW’s IPTV service. It can also support voice and video call. Looks like this is a trend for fixed line telcos to use “IP Convergence” devices to generate additional revenue from fixed line subscribers. In USA similar services are already available:
Traditional fixed line telcos are facing tough competitions from mobile operators and VoIP service providers. By adding value to existing offerings ( in PCCW case the multimedia content ) they can avoid direct pricing competitions while generating additional revenue from existing subscribers.
The issue of mobile carrier resistance to VoIP has been a common topic on this blog. I don’t intend to beat a dead horse, so all I will say is that Michael J. Schabel wrote a great piece discussing network management and the importance of delivering the right level of service while accommodating increasing traffic volume. Check it out.
Only last month Global IP Solutions sponsored the HD Communications summit in New York. While attendance was relatively small, much like introducing a blend of quality cabernet sauvignon, cabernet franc and merlot grapes to a wine press - the audience was a great mix that should produce a successful push for high-definition voice.
GIPS is strongly pushing for change and the momentum is growing among businesses and consumers who experience high-definition (HD) voice. As the core fundamentals of HD voice rest in GIPS VoiceEngine technology, it’s only natural that we tout the benefits - come on it’s in our company’s DNA.
A number of customers have said to us that GIPS is their secret sauce, a high compliment indeed - but their success is also because they started with the right building blocks and it’s their vision of how they develop and market their products that ultimately produce success. So you can drive a BMW, Lexus or Ferrari but if you’re running a Yugo engine underneath the hood - it’s not going to be long before the driver realizes they are in control of a dud.
There has been a growing interest in HD voice from the mobile sector and we are continuing to spread the word about GIPS VoiceEngine, which is why we’ve signed up with US Telecom to provide more information through an upcoming webinar . We’ve invited Elliot Gold to join - an analyst and industry pundit who has been providing an authoritative source for teleconferencing news and analysis for more than 25 years.
So while FM radio launched, a man stood on the moon and television has evolved from black and white to color to high-definition over the last 72 years - telephony has remained the same…yawn.
1937 1980 2009
NO CHANGE
Carriers could be caught unaware if they don’t rise with the tide and offer HD voice services, as it will be the first and second mover’s advantage that will really impact the market.
There’s a great opportunity for the telecommunications’ industry and understanding the essential requirements for the future will enable carriers, hardware manufacturers and service providers to provide the HD communication experience that consumers want to call. Because the last thing we want to hear is that HD voice is all gone Pete Tong.
In a recent interview with Telephony online’s Carol Wilson, I heard her articulate a term I had not heard in a long time: “a rising tide lifts all boats.” It’s rather an appropriate term for the growing real-time video space. As I wrote in my post last week, video communications traffic is set to increase tenfold by 2013 - according to Cisco. Given that situation, bandwidth could become an issue for consumers, service providers and application developers who may well be interested in ensuring their video usage is both optimal for their networks and usage.
While the number of video conferencing and video application products out in the market is increasing (whether it’s peer-to-peer or multiparty video conferencing) it will benefit all of the industry players involved, as usage grows- hence the term ‘a rising tide lifts all boats.’
As more users increase their experience and familiarity with video conversations, it will become a more common everyday-experience, both in the workplace and home. This has already started to happen with a younger generation entering the workforce who is accustomed to communicating with instant message text, VoIP calls and video.
However, in conjunction with this shift it will not be long before end users become far more discerning. For those businesses that offer a sub-par video experience it will not be long before customers migrate to a better solution. (So, yes look out for GIPS supported video)
I liken it to the iPhone experience - a mobile phone was just that for most consumers until Apple entered the market. The user experience and the quality of the experience pushed Apple’s competition to offer consumers better smartphones in general, especially as customers were migrating to AT&T - the exclusive US provider for iPhone. Growth has been explosive for the iPhone - it has generated increasing data revenue for AT&T. Last quarter alone, AT&T wireless data revenues were up nearly 40 percent to $3.2 billion.
So as the video experience improves, whether it’s on a personal computer or a mobile phone watch for the migration to the best quality experience.
Sweden has a reputation for being a very open and tolerant country, but it’s not only U.S. service providers and device manufactures who are trying to block VoIP traffic (see my colleague’s blog on this topic). Last Friday I read an article in a Swedish newspaper about data usage in wireless devices and how it affects service provider revenue. Just like their North American counterparts, Swedish service providers fear becoming simple data pipe providers, which means reduced revenue streams and competition with local ADSL/bit pipe providers.
Is carrier reaction a surprise? No. Today mobile broadband access in Sweden costs approximately $10 (for download speeds of up to 2 Mbit/s and uploads up to 0.384 Mbit/s) or $30 (downloads up to 10 Mbit/s and uploads up to 4.6 Mbit/s). I can assure you that the speed you get from these “Smart Turbo3G-modems” is amazing, especially in the larger cities. During 2008, the average download per user was approximately 2GByte of data per month. Since data traffic continues to increase, service providers will soon need to invest in extra network capacity. Two years ago, a service provider earned $380 per GByte, but today that revenue is down to $25 for the same amount of transferred data.
Data traffic in Sweden increased fivefold from 2007 to 2008, and today 877,000 people (1/5 of all active broadband subscriptions) use 3G mobile broadband as their main broadband provider. Over the same time period, data revenue has only increased 76% due to monthly fixed fees. This is all the more interesting because it seems like no one uses MMS anymore (at least no one I know. It is really just an expensive way of sending an image, and is so much cheaper to just send an email).
To solve the paradox of decreasing revenue and increasing data traffic usage, service providers are trying to block VoIP and other non-revenue generating data traffic. There are several examples of such behavior from large operators such as T-Mobile. In the article mentioned above, the Swedish PTS (Post and Telecom Agency, which is like the Swedish FCC) is seeking the authority to stop any service provider that tries to block VoIP usage. PTS states that service providers should not be allowed to manipulate traffic, and that users should be able to freely access any content without service provider interference. Niclas Lundblad, European Policy Manager at Google agrees, stating, “PTS is doing the right thing. This really fosters innovation in the networks.” Unfortunately, PTS does not currently have the authority to stop service providers until the EU takes a general decision about these regulations this fall.
So it appears as if service providers are again attempting to obstruct innovation and development instead of finding a viable business model that would allow them to generate more revenue from data traffic.
